Utah Jazz

          The Utah Jazz struggled in 2013, winning only 25 games. The Jazz have stockpiled talent and while the future looks bright, this will be an important year for the rebuilding process. Utah kept Gordon Heyward (who signed a four year-63 million dollar contract with the Hornets) and must make decisions on whether to invest in guys like Alec Burks and Enes Kanter. Heyward impressed last year, averaging more than 16 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds. The jury is still out on whether he is worth the max but he is looking more and more like a franchise cornerstone. Burks, 23, is an interesting player who can well finish inside. Kanter has not been the player the Jazz thought they were getting when they drafted him with the 3^rd pick in the 2011 draft. Kanter has been working on developing a jump shot (specifically his stroke from three) which would make him much more valuable and a fit to pair with power forward Derrick Favors. Favors is in a big year as well, though already signed to a big contract. The Jazz also have French big man Rudy Gobert who, although raw, has the potential to be the best big man on this team. The Jazz invested their last two drafts in back court talent. 

        Trey Burke, 21, and Dante Exum, 19, are the future of this franchise. Burke started the season late but was probably the second best point guard in last years draft behind Michael Carter Williams. Exum has the most potential of any player on this roster and could be a star. Unfortunately, Exum can’t shoot yet and is very raw so his progress (like most Jazz players) will take years to comprehend.

X Factor: Derrick Favors:

Favors (above) is in a make or break year

            Derrick Favors, while solid, hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his play for the Jazz. Favors was drafted by the Nets (3^rd in 2010) and then shipped to Utah as the key piece in the Nets landing Deron Williams. Favors is a monster rebounder and is one of the most physically imposing forwards in the league. At 6’10’’ 268, it’s not wonder people are obsessed with Favor’s talent. Favor’s defends the basket well for a power forward (1.5 BPG) but hasn’t taken the next step in terms of his offensive game. This may have to do with his situation, as Tyrone Corbin’s offense was not suited for Favor’s game, which constantly put him in the post. Favors works better off of the pick and roll which allows him to use his athleticism. I think Favors is in for a big year and will show the doubters what kind of talent he has. 

Question: What position will Dante Exum play?

Exum (above) is full of potential but what position will he play?

Similar to the Timberwolves, the Jazz might have drafted the same position in two consecutive years. It is no secret that Trey Burke is a point guard but Dante Exum might be a one or a two. Exum’s best trait is his ability to see the floor. Exum could be like Westbrook in that teams are not sure what position he plays. If Exum plays the two, Trey Burke’s future in Utah is safe but if Exum shows that he is a better fit at the point guard position, Burke’s situation becomes cloudy. Dante Exum has the potential to be a special player, as he has been compared him to Kobe. Playing in Australia might be a red flag but the guy has talent. It will take Exum years to grow into the player he projects to be but he could well be worth in the investment. Exum has tremendous vision and incredible length.

Best Case: Exum looks like the Australian Kobe, Burke shows he has starter potential, Favors, Gobert and Kanter play well to increase their trade value, players stay healthy

Worst case: Heyward contract was a bust, Exum is another example of how risky international picks in basketball are (BARG) Kanter is a bust and the Jazz spend another pick on a big man or a point  guard.

Bold prediction: Derrick Favors averages a double double with at least 15 and 10.

Sacramento Kings

2013 Record: 28-54 2014 projected finish: 14^th

          The Sacremento Kings used to be a great organization and had one of the better rosters in the league. But Mike Bibby and Chris Webber are gone and thankfully the Maloofs are as well. It’s up to Demarcus Cousins to lead them back to the playoffs. But it isn’t happening. I am a huge fan of Cousins (in hindsight the Nets probably should’ve drafted him over Favors) as this man is a beast. His attitude is an issue but I think the media has overblown it to make him look like a bad guy, which I don’t think he is. He’s no Percy Harvin. Demarcus took a big step forward averaging 22.7 points a game and grabbing 11.7 rebounds a game. Double double guys are hard to find in today’s NBA and Cousins is one of the best. Cousins was 2^nd in usage rate and 5^th in PER. Cousins posted a 101 defensive rating which was good enough for 17^th in the league. He averaged 1.3 blocks and 1.5 steals a game and led the league in charges drawn with 36. Cousins played for Team USA in the FIBA World Championships and helped Team USA win yet another gold medal. 

          Like Kobe in LA, Cousins is alone in Sacramento. Rudy Gay was actually pretty good last season. Gay averaged 20.1 ppg with the Kings and shot 48.2% from the field. Gay will never be the superstar he had the potential to be but he has become (at least the 2013 version) a pretty good player. If he goes back to the Toronto Raptor’s Rudy Gay, Sacramento is in trouble. Really the Kings biggest mistake is losing Isaiah Thomas to the Phoenix Suns. Thomas was a revelation for the Kings, averaging 20.3 points a game and posted a 20.54 PER. Thomas will be replaced by Darren Collison and Ramon Sessions. There are reasons why Collison and Sessions are always switching teams: they aren’t very good. The Kings will find this out soon and will be in the market for a point guard (Rondo?) but that is not their only hole. This team has major questions at the SG and PF position assuming Gay plays small forward. Derrick Williams, Jason Thompson and Carl Landry make over 18 million combined in 2014. Think about that for a second.  Williams and Thompson have never reached their potential and Landry cashed out on his big year with Golden State. I don’t see any of those guys as more than expensive rotation guys. It will be interesting to see how Ray McCallum and Ben McLemore do in their second seasons but they aren’t superstars.

Question: are Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore doomed in Sacramento?

We thought the Kings were sold on Mclemore being their future two guard for the future when they drafted him with the 7^th pick in the draft in 2013 only to turn around and draft Stauskas with the 8^th pick the following year. The two are also similar in that their strongest weapon is their jump shot. McLemore has a beautiful jump shot but only shot 32% from the three-point line last year. McLemore is athletic but does not project as a scorer as much as a shooter. Stauskas can really shoot the ball and improved every year in college at the University of Michigan. I think the Kings are in an interesting position and would be wise to play McLemore and Stauskas together. A lineup of Collison-McLemore-Stauskas-Gay-Cousins looks dangerous. If only they kept Isaiah.

 

Can McLemore (left) and Stauskas (right) mesh well together?

X Factor: Rudy Gay

We saw what Rudy Gay can do when he has a point to prove. Everyone loved making fun of Gay when he was hoisting up long twos (worst shot in basketball) and shooting threes (something he isn’t very good at) but when he got to Sacramento something changed. Gay started attacking the basket and stopped taking so many bad shots. We saw this happen with Josh Smith with the Hawks. Smith shot 87 threes in 2008-09 but then shot 7 in 2009, which was unsurprisingly his best year.  It was sad to see him go back to his old ways in 2010 when he shot 154 threes and his game suffered because of it. Gay isn’t that bad of a three point shooter but his game is so much better inside the arc and around the basket. If Gay continues his success with the Kings, he could be in for another payday. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably still get a huge contract. Gay had a successful summer filling in for Paul George for Team USA in the 2014 FIBA World Championships. 

 

Gay (center) will look to continue his strong start to his King's career

Best Case: Cousins stops fouling so much and becomes the superstar the Kings need, Gay continues his strong start to his King career and McLemore and Stauskus play well. 

Worst Case: Cousins breaks his no tech goal and goes back to the attitude problems, Gay goes back to Toronto Raptors version of himself and McLemore and Stauskus struggle.

Bold Prediction: Kings realize Collison and Sessions stink and make a bold trade for Rajon Rondo.

Lakers Preview

It feels like yesterday when the LA Lakers owned the NBA. Shaq and Phil Jackson’s Laker years are over and Kobe Bryant is not far off. Kobe played six games last season and had to be shut down early because of a lateral tibial plateau fracture in his left knee. Bryant is in year one of his two year 48.5 million extension he signed in November of 2013. Jurgen Klinsmann was wrong about not selecting Landon Donovan for the 2014 World Cup but he was sure right about Kobe’s contract being more about past production than what he will bring to the court in 2014 and 2015. Kobe will probably score a lot of points although will low efficiency. Kobe also offers nothing on the defensive side of the ball, which makes the contract look worse.

He's baaack. Bryant (above) will be doing a lot of this this season.

            There is just not enough talent on this Laker team to contend for anything other than lottery balls. The Lakers added veteran talent like Miami did with Lebron, Wade and Bosh except they have a 36-year-old Kobe. Steve Nash looks like his career is all but finished as he tries to finish his career on a good note. Carlos Boozer was signed after the Bulls amnestied him. Boozer posted okay numbers (13.7 ppg 8.3 RPG) but had a 14.48 PER and offers nothing on the defensive side of the ball. He can hit the mid range shot and get rebounds but he is not the same player (a la Kobe, Nash) as he once was on the Jazz. Nick Young will hopefully be as fun as last year but I don’t see Swaggy P ever making that 21.5 million dollar deal look worth it at least on the basketball court. Jordan Hill can get boards but not much else and Wesley Johnson will not be able to shoot threes, which is one of the only things he’s good at (36.9%). 

           The Lakers spent the 7^th pick in the 2014 draft on Julius Randle. Randle was the freshman superstar on the Kentucky Wildcats who finished second to UConn in the NCAA tournament. Randle is a 6’9’’ PF who needs to develop a mid range jumper to complement his strong inside game. Randle does not have long arms and will have a hard time scoring in the NBA. Randle has a high ceiling, as he could end up like Zach Randolph without the baggage but could very well be a bust. Randle will need to learn how to score against longer defenders and can no longer rely on bullying smaller players in the post. I don’t think he’s the star the Lakers need but it will be interesting watching him with this group of veterans. Nobody on this Laker team can stop anything on the perimeter and it will be interesting to see which side of the ball they are worse at.

Julius Randle will have a hard time transitioning to the NBA

Question: Will the Lakers be worse without D’antoni?

          Everybody loves to make fun of Byron Scott and his hate for the long ball. Everybody also loves to make fun of Mike D’antoni and his obsession with the offensive side of the ball. Last year, the Lakers put everything into their offense and let teams score all over them. This year, expect the Lakers to shy away from taking three’s and suffer on both sides of the ball. I actually think that Mike D’antoni did a pretty great job with the roster he was given. I don’t see how Byron Scott can do well with this roster.  This Lakers team looks brutal on paper and might be worse because of Scott’s resistance to shoot three pointers.

X Factor: Jeremy Lin

         

This is Lin's final shot at a starting gig in the NBA

This is Jeremy Lin’s final shot at a starting job in the NBA. Many people see him as a sixth man scoring threat, a job he could thrive at. I think Lin has the ability to be a starter. Unfortunately, I’m not sure this is the best place for Lin (or anybody really) to show his potential. Lin’s problem in Houston was that there were too many offensive options for Lin to actually take control of the offense as a point guard. James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Dwight Howard dominated the ball for Houston. The offensive system seemed to fit Lin and showed flashes of Linsanity: scored 31 points against Toronto then the following game scored 34 points and dished out 11 assists against the Sixers. Lin does not have many expectations this year but also has Kobe Bryant taking the role of James Harden. Byron Scott’s lethargic offense will also look to weaken Lin’s effect on the game. The Lakers do not have much to look forward to but maybe Lin can rekindle the fire and help the Lakers win some games. Lin at his best would help ease the pressure of Kobe and would help guys like Julius Randle and Jordan Hill get easy looks. Jeremy Lin at his worst would see Kobe shoot 30 times a game (could happen even with good Lin) and see Carlos Boozer taking the second highest amount of shots a game.

Best Case: Kobe is back and averages more than 25 a game, Jeremy Lin brings back Linsanity, Steve Nash has a strong final year, Julius Randle is legit and the Lakers win 30 games.

Worst Case: Kobe is a shell of his former self, Lin isn’t the answer, Julius Randle is a bust and Byron Scott’s offense is worse than everyone says it will be. Nash can’t find the court.

Bold Prediction: Kobe Bryant averages less than 22 points a game.

Los Angeles Clippers

            The Los Angeles Clippers finished third in the Western Conference with 57 wins and beat the Golden State Warriors in round one of the playoffs before losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games. The Clippers are a powerhouse and are one of the most exciting teams in the NBA. Finally, Donald Sterling is gone and Steve Balmer looks like a great owner. The Clippers experienced a crazy and unique situation with Sterling and cannot be blamed if their heads weren’t in the right place in the most pivotal point in the season. If the owner of my team were a racist and horrible human being, I’d have a hard time even rooting for them. 

The Clippers boast the best point guard in the league in Chris Paul and the most athletic power forward in the league in Blake Griffin. The Clippers might have the most athletic center in the league as well, as DeAndre Jordan has developed into a great shot blocker and rebounder. Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the league. Jamaal Crawford and Paul have the two of the best handles in the world. J.J. Redick is one of the best shooters in the league. The Clippers are a living video game. As fun as watching CP3 throw alleys to Griffin, watching Griffin blossom into a superstar has been a joy to watch. The Clippers have a chance to win the West because of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. The two might be the best duo in the league and are only getting better. Paul is such a great point guard and one of the best of all time. It’s up to Doc Rivers to get the bench good enough to sustain a high level when Paul is off the court. DeAndre Jordan was in the running for the most improved player award (went to Goran Dragic) as he posted career highs in rebounds, points and blocks. Jordan nearly doubled his rebounds from 7.2 to 13.6! Jordan entered the league as one of the rawest players I’ve ever seen but has established himself as a highlight machine and great role player.

Question: Is the Clippers bench a strength or a weakness?

The Clippers copied the big 3’s method of acquiring veterans to round out their bench. Hedo Turkoglu is nothing short of terrible and should not be on a playoff roster. Jordan Farmar is used to playing in L.A. and should fit nicely with the Clippers style of play. Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) won the sixth man of the year even if he played starters minutes at 30.3 minutes a game. Glen Davis played well for Doc Rivers and was relatively quiet (he was kicked out of a game early by coach Rivers) but is a loose cannon and could revert back to his days as big baby. Matt Barnes is crazy but is also solid and is the Clippers best perimeter defender. The Clippers brought in Spencer Hawes and Chris Douglas-Roberts to shore up the bench even if Hawes and Douglas-Roberts bring little to the defensive side of the ball. Hawes (13.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg. 1.2 bpg) is a stretch four who played really well with Philadelphia and Cleveland in 2013 but it remains to be seen whether it was a one-time thing. If Hawes can shoot the ball like he did last year (41%), he’ll be a great pickup. Douglas-Roberts experienced a similar “breakout year” in Charlotte but he can’t shoot to save his life. Douglas-Roberts also has the worst hair and shortest shorts of any player in the league.   

X-Factor: Blake Griffin

Griffin (above) has an outside shot at winning the MVP

 The Clippers will only go as far as Blake Griffin takes them. Griffin is number 4 on my list of guys who are irrationally hated list (James Harden rounds out the top 5) because he has been unable to shake the label that he is “just a dunker”. Griffin is a superstar (24.1ppg, 9.5 rpg 52.8%) and is starting to develop a jump shot. Griffin’s midrange game went from horrible to not that bad last season and the hope is for his shot to go from not that bad to good this year. Griffin also raised his free throw percentage up to 71% which shows that this guy has improved in almost every facet of the game. Griffin has improved his post up game up to a point to which it is now a weapon instead of a hindrance. His interior defense will never be amazing but he has DeAndre Jordan to load the paint. Griffin is also one of the best passing big men in the game and often throws alley-oops to Jordan. Griffin is a legitimate MVP candidate and should take yet another step forward toward being the best power forward in the league.

Best Case: Blake and CP3 stay healthy and the bench proves their worth. Clippers are 1-3 in the West

Worst Case: Blake and CP3 can’t stay healthy and the Clippers barely make the playoffs. Clippers are 4-8 in West.

Bold Prediction: Blake Griffin wins MVP.