Remember in June when the Nets
acquired Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and everyone thought it was a lock that
the Nets would have home court in the playoffs? Now they find themselves in the
6th seed and on the road vs the Toronto Raptors who weren't even supposed
to be here. But they are a young energetic team that could give the Nets a
problem.
Season Series 2-2, Both times the Nets lost to the Raptors were on
back to backs and the Nets basically won three games. However, Deron Williams
had his occasional late game lazy pass that led to the Nets blowing a game. Now
let’s look at some key points.
Match-up
The Raptors are ranked 9th
in both offensive and defensive rating. While
the Nets are 14th in offensive and 19th in defensive
rating.
The Three Ball
These are two teams that play
around the three ball and swing the ball around. Toronto shot the three ball at
372% and defended the three ball at 36%. The Nets shot the three at 369% and
defended it at 367%. The Nets and Raptors both attempt 22 threes a game.
Turnovers
Ever since the Nets moved Shaun
Livingston into the starting lineup they have been forcing turnovers. Brooklyn
forces 16.6 turnovers per 100 possessions and they have a league high 20.2% of
their points off turnovers. But the Raptors turn it over 14.8 times per 100
possessions which is the 12th lowest in the league. If the Nets can
force 17 turnovers a game in this series I believe Brooklyn will win.
Pace
Now everyone, including myself says
the Raptors are a fast energetic team but that is not necessarily true. They
are ranked 22nd in PACE while the Nets are 24th. You
would think that number would be a bit higher for the Raptors. The Raptors are
27th in fast break points at 9.6 fast break points per game while
Brooklyn is 29th at 9.3. The Raptors are definitely younger than the
Nets but they certainly do not play at a pace where it will give the Nets a
problem. In fact, they play at a pace the Nets prefer.
Rebounding
Toronto is top 12 in both offensive
rebound percentage and defensive rebounding percentage, while the Nets are
bottom four in both categories. These numbers are a bit skewed due to the time
Kevin Garnett has missed. A lot of times KG is top 10 in rebounding percentage
if he is healthy and playing the Nets will grab more rebounds than they usually
would.
Experience
Brooklyn’s top eight rotation
players have played 17,117 playoff minutes.
Position Match-ups
Point guard
Coming into the season this
match-up has a slam dunk for Deron Williams but now Kyle Lowry has closed the
gap. Many people might even say Kyle Lowry is better than Deron Williams but
when you look at the number they’re about even. Lowry scored three more points
per game but D-will shoots 3% better then Lowry. Lowry does shoot 1.5% better
then D-will from the three. However, Lowry does shoot a lot more overall than
D-will. Deron has had a down year but he is the most important player for the
Nets on offense. Their offensive rating is 108.3 when he’s on the floor. D-will
is the key for the Nets in every series. If he plays bad the Nets will lose and
if he plays great the Nets will win.
Shooting Guards
As much as Livingston as done for
the Net, DeMar DeRozan is the better player, but his numbers aren’t so great.
He takes 17.8 shots per game and shoots 42.9 percent and only 30% from three.
DeRozan is at times a very streaky shooter and hits a lot of contested jump
shots. Livingston has been great in the regular season but he could end up
hurting Brooklyn in the playoffs. Livingston doesn’t have a good outside shot. The
Raptors could abandon him on the outside and the Nets could be playing four on five.
If this happens I believe in Jason Kidd to fix this problem. Livingston could
also cause DeRozan problems Livingston is a good defender and can contest a lot
of DeRozan shots. If the Nets can control DeRozan they can win this series.
Small Forward
The Nets win this one Joe Johnson
is much better than Terrence Ross. Ross has had a good year. His shooting
numbers are above average and should keep improving in his career. Joe Johnson
has been a great player in his career but never gets the credit. Okay, so
Atlanta offered him that huge contract. What was he supposed to do, say no?
When he was with the Hawks he was bashed for never getting past the second
round. Have you seen that roster? That was their max. I think Joe Johnson has a
big series.
Power Forward
This is a big advantage for
the Nets. Paul Pierce is much better than Amir Johnson. Johnson isn’t big or
good enough to take advantage of the size mismatch. Paul Pierce will be able to
space the floor and open it up to allow Joe Johnson to post up on Ross to get
easy buckets. Amir Johnson is a good offensive rebounder. If the Nets can keep
him off the glass, they’ll be in a good spot.
Center
Kevin Garnett is back for the Nets
and he is the anchor of the defense. When he’s on the floor the Nets have a
defensive rating of 100.5. Joan Valanciunas isn’t a great center but he is a
good one if Garnett can play good defense and get 10 rebounds a game; he’ll put
the Nets in a great spot. Also he’ll probably scare Valanciunas.
Bench
The Net’s bench is better than
Toronto’s, but Patrick Paterson on the Raptors is a plus 75 vs the Nets. This
year his numbers aren’t eye popping but he is a stretch four like Pierce and
creates fantastic floor spacing. Also on the Raptors bench is Tyler Hansbrough;
he can be problem on the boards for the Nets, but also Garnett and him are
almost guaranteed to draw a double technical. Greivis Vasquez the backup point
guard for the Raptors is having a great year and has become one of the best
backup point guards in the league. For the Nets, their bench doesn’t have a
star but they are effective. They have two streakers in Mirza and Marcus
Thornton. Either one of those guys can win the Nets a game buy getting hot and
just sinking threes. Mason Plumlee will be the backup center for the in this
series. He did a great job filling in for Garnett while he was hurt. As long as
Plumlee keeps doing what he is doing he’ll be doing his job. The last bench
player for the Nets is AK-47. He isn’t going to fill up the box score but his
defense will be key off the bench and will make the smart passes against an inexperienced
Raptors team. I do not want to see Andray Blatche, Alan Anderson, and Jorge
Gutierrez in this series.
Prediction
Nets in 6
Both of these teams are very good but the Nets
are just a bit better. Like I said up top, it’s all up to D-will if he plays
great the Nets win.
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