Nets vs Heat

The Nets almost committed the great choke job of their team’s long and depressed history on Sunday, but they didn’t!  Now they head to South Beach to take on the two time defending champions, the Miami Heat. The Nets went 4-0 against the Heat this year, but that doesn’t mean much to me. The Heat are on a verge of a dynasty; the regular season doesn’t matter. But for this series the two keys for the Nets are Jason Kidd, and Deron Williams. The key for Miami is the health of a star, and the bench.

Match-up

Regular season:

            Brooklyn Nets 104.4 offensive rating 104.9 defensive rating

            Miami Heat 109 offensive rating 102.9 defensive rating

Head to head: 4 games

            Brooklyn Nets offensive rating 104.1 offensive rating 102.6 defensive rating

            Miami Heat offensive rating 102.6 defensive rating 104.1

Jason Kidd

            Jason Kidd is a LeBron’s stopper over the last three years. His record over the Heat is 13-3. Kidd watched Rick Carlisle slow LeBron in the 2011 finals. With the Knicks last year they swung the ball around the court vs Miami and lit them up from beyond the arch. This year Brooklyn is 4-0.  LeBron has been good in those games, but the Nets found ways to beat them. For Kidd this series is about keeping LeBron in check and playing the right guys on the Nets. Right before game 6, Kidd inserted Alan Anderson into the starting line. When I saw the tweet about this I was ready to leave the Barclay center and start the long depressing trip home. Instead, Anderson played well with the starters. When Anderson starts the team net rating with him on the floor is 2.3 (2 games), off the bench -7 (5 games).  These are only playoffs, but vs the Heat this year, in the two games off the bench, his rating was -12.4. However, in the one game he started vs Miami he was a +14! Now that’s a small sample size, but he should start in this series. Wait, did I just say Alan Anderson needs to start?!?! Kidd’s rotations are the key. Blatche needs more minutes than Plumlee. Versus the Heat, Plumlee -8.9 net rating, Blatche 0.2; both played 3 games vs them. Marcus Thornton remembered how to shoot a basketball in game 7 and now might be the most important guy off the bench for the Nets in this series. In four games this year vs the Heat, his net rating was a +20; two of those games he was on the Kings. Anderson should start, Thornton should be the 6^th man, and Blatche should be the first big off the bench.  However, if Kidd wants to test out Plumlee for a game or two, I am okay with that. Shaun Livingston had a disappointing first round. The numbers were not good; he should come off the bench. AK-47 and Mirza do not have great numbers vs the Heat this year, but they should play at times. If Mirza can heat up that’s always a good thing, but his defense is not good. AK-47 net rating is -10.1 vs the Heat this year, but he can play good defense on LeBron at times, so play him some.

Deron Williams

            Deron is the key for all of this team’s success. He wasn’t good in the first round and the Nets were lucky to get out of it. When your “star” (he’s not a star anymore) player shoots 41% from the field and 29% from the three, it’s not good. Deron needs to start hitting shots and start attacking the basketball. There were times vs Toronto where he would pass up open shots or avoid going to the basket. If Deron Williams doesn't perform the Nets will be gone and he’s going up against Mario Chalmers. Deron better take advantage of that.

Dwayne Wade

            The Heat have been off a week and are now healthy as can be. Most importantly D-Wade is healthy and ready to go in the first round. Versus the Bobcats, Wade shot 49% average and averaged 17 points. But the Heat’s net rating was -1 with him on the court (I’m looking for hope here, give me a break). If Wade is healthy and productive the Nets will have almost no chance to knock off the Heat.

Heat bench

            This is where the Nets have a shot to win this series. The Heat’s bench isn't that good anymore. Shane Battier looks done, and Ray Allen is having a bad year (maybe this week off will do him some good). Right now the Heat are relying on James Jones, and Rashard Lewis to hit shots for them. The Nets bench is better and they have to play like it all series. If they play at a high level the Nets have a shot.

Prediction

            Heat in 6… They have Lebron has their star and we have Deron Williams that’s not good. The Heat are just better than Brooklyn and everyone else.

One more thing

            Barclays Center has always had a lot of Heat fans in the building but don’t expect that to change with the Nets jacking up the ticket prices. You can sit in the upper deck for only $214!!! Who can say no to that?

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