2014 Draft

The NBA draft is on the 26th and since I am no college basketball expert we turn to our good friend John Kluppy for his draft expertise. In this draft I would say there are four levels of prospects; really good prospects, good prospects, some wildcards and everyone else. Agree?

JK:  I would definitely agree that there are tiers (like in any draft) but the drop from tier one to tier two is dramatic. Coming into the draft, I'd say that Embiid, Wiggins, Parker and maybe even Exum are the top tier. I believe that Wiggins will be the best player in this draft. I believe Wiggins, Embiid, and Exum have tremendous potential while Parker, who has the lowest floor, also has the lowest ceiling. Wiggins can be a TMac lite and Embiid has the potential to be the best offensive big man in the game. Exum, like Embiid, is very far but also has great potential. Exum has great size who projects as a plus defender with a potentially scary offensive repertoire. He has the size and passing ability to be a plus passer who can play the one and two.

   After those guys, Randle, Smart, and Gordon, round out the second tier. I really like Gordon. Gordon has the potential to be a defensive whiz with incredible athleticism. Shawn Marion and AK, guys who do a little bit of everything, are good pro comparisons. Smart is one of the intriguing players in this draft. If he had come out last year, he would've been picked 3rd by the Magic. He was seen as a Dwayne Wade type whose great leadership would help right the ship of any sunken ship. After the punch incident, he was seen as a wild card. The Kings seem like a great fit and I think he has the potential to be a star.

            I agree with your first part; I like Exum more than Parker. Wiggins and Embiid are the two best in this draft. I disagree with some of your stuff in the second part. Randle has taken a hit due to his foot injury so he could fall out of the top ten and his game doesn’t quite work in the current NBA.  However, he was definitely in the second tier of prospects before the news of his foot injury. For the Marcus Smart pushing incident, I personally don’t find it a big deal. He’s twenty years old and he pushed a fan who could have said something really awful towards him. I also noticed you left off a name on your second tier; a player who I really like, Noah Vonleh. He has great size, averaged a double, and can shot the three, and did I mention he’s 6’10? He could be a wildcard, but I love his game I think he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the second tier.

JK:  I totally forgot about Vonleh. I’d rather have him than Randle and Smart. I don't mind the Smart incident and I think he can still be the leader people brought him up to be. I think Vonleh has a lot of potential and could've been much more productive in college if given more chances at Indiana. Randle has almost no defensive potential and with his T-Rex arms, doesn't look to have a lot of potential. I think Randle has taken a hit unfairly (like Smart) but could be a steal later in draft if he falls (a la Jared Sullinger). If he lands in the top 10-14, I’d pass. But 20 and on? I’d pull the trigger.

The Wildcards in the draft are? I put Exum in here simply because he has never seen him play before and Doug McDermott. McDermott was a great scorer in college but it won’t translate to the NBA. He could be a good shooter in the NBA but that’s about it; and his defense is about average.

JK: I wouldn't put Exum in wild cards. Or instead of a wildcard section, I would call the third tier the hindsight guys. I think guys like Douggy buckets or whatever, Zack Lavine and James Young could turn into very serviceable players but could also be nothing more than a lost cause. I like Lavine and I think he has the ability to be a star with plus athleticism (watch those crazy videos of him in workouts) with a great shooting touch. He can score too, but he wasn't a leader at UCLA as it was obvious that it was Kyle Anderson's team. Speaking of Anderson, he’s probably the hardest guy in the draft to predict. His stock has been at the top ten (nbadraft.net had him going in the top ten at one point), to the lottery, to out of the first round. Boris Diaw’s amazing postseason probably helped his stock as his game resembles his to a key. Anderson will never give you defense but his offensive game is one of the more well-rounded in the draft. He does everything (offensively) well and is LeBron James without the athleticism. James Young has one of the nicest jumpers in the draft and showed flashes of a real scorer who can finish at the basket.

So you like Kyle Anderson? I agree that all of those guys could be serviceable players in the NBA. The only problem is they will be drafted into situations where they will be asked to be the 3rd or 4th guy and some of those guys might not be ready for that. I think Lavine is the guy that will be a great pick in the lottery and you mentioned the workout videos. I think he will sneak into the top ten; his potential is sky high. Okay, what player do you think is a bust that will be picked in the top 15?

JK: I like Kyle Anderson but to a point. If I’m a team in the later first round, I’d take him without a doubt. Lottery? That gets a little tougher. I also think it depends on the situation. The Spurs seem like a perfect fit. But so do a lot of competing teams like the Clippers (Collison replacement?) Suns (perfect fit for their style) Rockets (ditto) and the Heat (could replace Mario Chalmers). I think Randle is a nice fit as a bust. I would rather have guys like Young, Lavine, Stauskas, Harris and all the other guys in the top ten. I also think Douggie buckets has a good chance at being a bust. White guys who need the ball a lot don’t always translate into the NBA well. If he wants to be successful he’ll have to transform his game (think J.J. Redick) but even if he does he won’t be the player people will want him to be.

            I think Randle has the highest probability to be a bust. The injury and his style of play is concerning. Aaron Gordon’s lack of offensive skill is concerning, but he can improve. Marcus Smart shooting is also not great although he did improve his 3 point % but 10 points this year. Randle is probably the best bet for a bust I agree. Last question, give me a mock of the first ten picks (no trades just the way the teams are slotted now).

JK:

1. (Cleveland) Andrew Wiggins  

2. (Milwaukee) Jabari Parker

3. (Philly) Dante Exum

4. (Orlando) Noah Vonleh

5. (Utah) Aaron Gordon

6. (Boston) Joel Embiid:

7. (L.A.) Julius Randle:

8. (Sacramento) Marcus Smart

9. (Charlotte) Nik Stauskas

10 (76ers) Gary Harris

My top 10 is…

1.    (Cleveland) Wiggins

2.      (Milwaukee) Parker

3.      (Philly) Exum

4.      (Orlando) Embiid

5.      (Utah) Vonleh

6.      (Boston) Gordon

7.      (L.A.) Smart

8.      (Sacramento) Randle

9.      (Charlotte) McDermott

10.  (Philly) Stauskas

Two quick notes. John and I wrote this piece before the Embiid injury due to our schedules… Embiid would have been the number one pick if he had not gotten hurt but he’s still a top ten player. Also I expect the Nets to get into this draft by buying a pick, my belief is that it will be a second round pick. The Nets don’t have the assets to acquire a first round pick unless they are willing to part with Brook Lopez which doesn’t seem likely at the moment.

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