Nets Preview

            It is finally October; the greatest month of the year, which means the NBA training camps have begun and the NBA season starts at the end of the month. For the Brooklyn Nets the season can’t start fast enough. The Nets had one of their strangest off seasons of recent memory when their head coach bolted to Milwaukee. FREAKING MILWAUKEE!!!!And now the owner is reportedly looking to sell the team as well. Why is it that everyone is leaving Brooklyn except for Billy King? Regardless, let’s look at the major issues surrounding the Nets this season.

Feet

            I don’t know if Rex Ryan has a favorite basketball team but if he doesn’t he would love this year’s Nets team; because the teams season depends on three feet. Deron Williams is coming off ankle surgery on both ankles. Before the surgery last year, Deron Williams looked like a bottom ten point guard in the league. If the Nets are going to make the playoffs Deron Williams has to be a top 12 point guard.  Deron’s numbers last season were equal to his career average and the Nets offensive rating with Deron on the court was 108.3 (that’s very good). So if Deron averaged his career numbers and had a very good offensive rating why has he been killed by fans and the media? Because his career numbers aren’t enough. In order for the Nets to have a great year Deron must have a great year. The other foot of concern on the Nets is Brook Lopez. Lopez is coming off his second major foot surgery. He only played in 17 games last year and the Nets struggled last year with Lopez. They turned the season around after his injury when they played small ball. If Kidd was still the coach of the Nets, Lopez would make the team worse. However, with Hollins as the coach, Lopez will be a key to the Nets season. Reports say Lopez is looking good and is ahead of schedule in his rehab but the Nets need to be careful with Brook. They can’t let him play in back to backs or 4 games in 7 days. They need to be cautious with him because one more foot injury and it could be his career. If Lopez and Williams stay healthy and have great years the Nets will be a top 5 team in the east.

Lionel Hollins

            When Jason Kidd left for Milwaukee it left the Nets in a bad spot. They needed to find a new coach four days before free agency; so the Nets reacted quickly and hired Lionel Hollins.

His career win percentage is .516, but his last 4 seasons in Memphis he went 183-129 which is a .704 win percentage. Since the 2010-2011 season all of Hollins teams had a positive net rating and in the 12-13 season his last year as the coach of the Grizzlies he had a net of 4.2 and reached the Western Conference finals. Each season in Memphis, Hollins teams were among the slowest in the league when it came to pace; which is something he wants to change in Brooklyn. With a new coach comes a new system and it will look a lot different this year in Brooklyn. Under Kidd, the Nets usually only had one big on the floor, but with Hollins the Nets will use two bigs and they will be a key part to the offense. Last year Kidd was a players’ coach. He took the blame and he preferred rest over practice. Hollins is the complete opposite. He is a stuff coach and will work the Nets hard all season long. Last year the Nets had a negative net rating. I think that will change under Hollins and the Nets will have positive net rating all year.

            Shooting Guard

The Nets current starting lineup is Williams-???- Johnson-KG-Lopez. Who will be the starting two guard? As of now it looks like the newest Nets Bojan Bogdanovic (he needs a nickname ASAP). Bojan is finally a Net after playing in Europe the last three years. He is a sharpshooter and should hit a lot of threes this year. He comes to America with high reviews from basketball writers and executives. Bojan is the only real option to start for the Nets at the two guard. The other two players are Alan Anderson and Andrei Kirilenko. Anderson is a good player when he is used right. When Alan Anderson plays more than 18 minutes a game you aren’t going to win. If Anderson is the 8^th or 9^th guy on a team it’s good, but by no means is he a starter. AK47 is one of my favorite players on this team but he isn’t a good option to start, but he will finish a lot of games for the Nets. If you start AK the spacing will be bad for the Nets. The lane will be clogged, teams will double Lopez in the post, and there won’t be any open perimeter shots for Deron and Joe. A lineup with AK, KG and Lopez would be good defensively but it wouldn’t be able to score. Bojan is the only option because the defense must keep a defender on him because of his sharp shooting and because he is a pretty good scorer. I don’t know a lot about Bojan but he should work on his postgame. He is 6’8 and 216 pounds, that’s huge for a two guard and it’s bigger than most threes in the league. Another reason why Bojan should start is because he’s only 25. The Nets let Pierce go because they wanted to save money and get younger. Bojan is that young guy play him.

KG and The Other Bigs                                                                                                                   It sounds like this will be Kevin Garnett’s last season in the NBA. Last year KG averaged 20 minutes a game. Under Hollins that will change; he is already playing more in preseason. KG should be on the same schedule as last year, no back to backs. He is an old man and needs to be ready for the playoffs. KG should have a good season but my major concern with Brooklyn is the lack of bigs they have. With Lopez and KG bound to miss games due to rest, the Nets don’t have a good safety net behind them. Plumlee was a great pick last year but can he repeat last year? I don’t think so. Plumlee was a perfect center in Kidd’s system. With Hollins the Nets will be slower and Plumlee will be working in the post a lot more than last year, and Plumlee was never in the post last year. Mirza will be spaced out and should be okay offensively but going up against other big men is where Mirza has his trouble. The only other big man on the roster is Cory Jefferson who was the last pick in this year’s draft. The Nets biggest mistake this offseason was not resigning Andray Blatche. He would be a good player in this system. Blatche is far and way better than Plumlee in the post. With Blatche you get the stupid mental errors but he’s an effective score down low with the ball in his hands. That is something Plumlee hasn’t shown he can do yet. This is a concern because what if the Nets have a back to back and Lopez can’t play, Plumlee is starting at center and gets into foul trouble (which is something that happened a lot last year) who’s playing center? Jerome Jordan has been a great training camp find for the Nets. He’s been a force down low and might even see some playing time in the regular season.

Record

            Now I think picking a record for 82 game season is dumb but what the hell I’ll do it. Going through the schedule I have the Nets at 44-48 wins… seems like a lot but I have a good feeling about this team Hollins is a good coach. The Nets start 10-21 last year that won’t happen this year. Early in the season the Nets have a good first six games at the very least they should start 5-1. I think the Nets will finish between 6th and 4th in the East. They could win the Atlantic but I think the Raptors win the division again.

            On a personal note @threwthenet will have a lot less coverage this year due to myself being an assistant/student manger on my college’s basketball team.  

            For everything Nets and NBA follow @threwthenet on twitter. 

Western Conference Preview

Everybody knows how deep and competitive the Western Conference is: the Phoenix Suns won 48 games and missed out on the playoffs. One could make a legitimate case for 11 teams to make the playoffs. It seems unfair that three very good teams will miss the playoffs when they would most certainly qualify in the much weaker Eastern Conference. Here's my Western Conference preview:

1. Clippers

2. Spurs

3. Warriors

4. OKC

5. Rockets

6. Dallas

7. Memphis

8. Portland

9. Phoenix

10. New Orleans

11. Denver

12. Minnesota

13. Utah

14. Sacramento

15. Lakers

San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs look to repeat as champions with almost the exact same team as last year. The Spurs lone move? Drafting Saint Anthony’s alum and New Jersey native Kyle Anderson will the 30^th pick in the draft. Anderson fits the Spurs like a glove, as his pro comparison, Boris Diaw is on the roster. Anderson (nicknamed Slomo) should be able to learn how to be effective in the Spurs system. Diaw carries a lot of the same traits as Anderson as he is very slow and can lead the offense as a point forward but Anderson has a chance to be better. Anderson was a great shooter, rebounder and distributer in college but that won’t mean much in the NBA. Don’t look for Anderson to do much this year though as the Spurs will likely play with the same rotation as last year. Tony Parker is a great point guard and an elite finisher at the rim. Manu Ginobli had a bounce back year in 2013 and will look to continue his fabulous career as a Spur. Tim Duncan is one of the greatest players and might be the greatest power forward of all time. NBA finals MVP Kawai Leonard will look to develop his offense, as his perimeter defense might be the best in the league. Patty Mills was great last year backup up Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter was solid as usual. Danny Green is one of the best spot up shooters in the league. So why am I projecting a second place regular season finish for the Spurs? Greg Popovich is the best coach in the league and knows that the regular season is too long. He’ll rest his players and give up some games for the playoffs. The Spurs know that home court doesn’t mean that much when you only need 5 games.

What else is there to say? The Spurs are the best organization in sports.

Question: is this the year the Spurs take a step back?

We all know it’s coming. The Spurs dynasty will end but when exactly will it happen? We thought it was last year. We thought it was the year before that and the year prior but the Spurs keep on trucking. This would seem to be the year after a championship run that the Spurs bump the breaks a little. Tim Duncan is 38, Manu Ginobli is 37 and Tony Parker was hobbled in the finals. Parker is more injury prone than the two oldies and who knows if Boris Diaw will be the player he was for the Spurs last year. The Spurs might have a championship hangover and they might lose a little of the will to fight that fueled them in their revenge year on the Heat. If there is any coach to repeat, it’s Pop.

X-factor: Kawai Leonard

Leonard (above) has the chance to be special

If the Spurs hope to repeat, Kawai Leonard needs to be a star. Leonard is already a tremendous defender and an athletic freak. Leonard has a good jump shot (37.9% from deep) and an established offensive game would make him near unstoppable. Leonard does most of his work on offense off of cuts and fast breaks but if he could learn how to score off the dribble, he would be that much more dangerous. The thing about the Spurs is that an x-factor does not really exist. The Spurs are set up that they do not really rely on one person or one position. The system allows them to share and distribute responsibility. Leonard should be able to handle more of the load and would turn into a superstar if he does.

Best case: Spurs deny the inevitable and continue their dominance on the league.

Worst case: Father time catches up with the likes of Duncan and Ginobli, Parker can’t stay on court.

Bold Prediction: Kyle Anderson is a steal at 30 and makes an all rookie team.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors:

The days of Mark Jackson are finally over in Golden State. Jackson is more of a preacher than an NBA coach, as Golden State’s offense lacked ball movement and synergy. Jackson’s offense could be summed up in four wordS: “Steph Curry DO SOMETHING”. Curry would come off of a screen, dribble around another screen and then hoist up a three. Steve Kerr has been brought in to utilize the many threats that the Warriors offer. Klay Thompson looks primed to have a breakout year. Steph Curry might be the best jump shooter the league has ever seen and will look to continue his dominance. Curry averaged 24 points a game and shot 42% from three point range. Curry averaged 8.5 assists, cementing his place as a point guard. I personally think Curry would be perfectly suited as a shooting guard and that point guard with range would work wonders with this offense. Curry at the two, Klay at the three, Iggy at the four and Bogut is scary. Andre Igoudala is a great defender but Kerr might use him off the bench. It’s an interesting idea but it depends on who starts in his place. Draymond Green can shoot the three and defend the perimeter and Harrison Barnes fits in well with Klay and Curry. Kerr will have a tough decision as to who he starts if he indeed tries to bring Igoudala off the bench. The Warriors added Leondro Barbosa but Barbosa is well past his prime and the Warriors would be wise to give his minutes to someone younger and more deserving.

Klay Thompson has looked great in the preseason

Who says no to this trade?

Imagine how many open looks Curry and Klay would get with Rubio running the point! Igoudala alleys! The Wolves would rid themselves of Kevin Martin’s contract and get a nice piece in Harrison Barnes.

How about this trade? 

Warriors get Rubio and shooter Kevin Martin. Wolves get 2 years of Eric Gordon instead of Lee and Pelicans get Lee. Well Lee doesn’t really fit the Pelicans does he? How about another trade!

Okay who says no to this one?

Warriors get Rubio and Martin, Wolves get Gordon and Barnes, Pelicans get expiring contract and gain the ability to sign Asik to a long term deal. The Raptors get Lee and have Patrick Patterson come off the bench. Raptors might need some picks to sweeten the deal but they’re pretty much capped out with big deals to Derozan, Lowry, Vazquez and Patterson so why not use the cap on Lee who becomes an expiring in a year?

Question: What’s going on with Klay and the Warriors?

Much has been said about Klay Thompson and the Warriors hesitance at offering him a max deal. I don’t think Warriors fans have to worry about Klay leaving any time soon. I’d bet everything on the Warriors retaining him for years to come. Klay is a restricted free agent, which means that the Warriors can match any deal. History suggests that restricted free agents who sign an offer with a different team (and are matched) stay with their team. What happened when Eric Gordon signed a deal with the Suns and was convinced he was going there? The then Hornets matched and he stayed. What happened when Batum signed a deal with the Timberwolves? The Blazers matched and he has stayed there ever since. Did Deandre Jordan signing with the Warriors end his Clipper career? No, because they matched it and he's been happy ever since. Gordon Heyward is the latest example of guys signing an offer, stating that their "heart is in _____" but then their team matches and they stay there for the next 5 years. Klay is going to get the max albeit from the Warriors or from another team. Either way, he'll stay in Golden State. Why would the Warriors reject trading Klay for Kevin Love (something I think they’ll regret) if they did not see him being part of the future?

Curry's shot chart (above) is unbelievable

Klay's shot chart (above) isn't bad either

Klay shot chart is not as impressive but it’s pretty damn good. The “Splash Brothers” might be the best shooting duo the NBA has ever since. Steve Kerr is a great NBA mind and has a chance to take the Warriors to new levels. Andre Igoudala returns after a successful first season. Igoudala’s perimeter defense is key to hiding Curry and David Lee’s defensive faults. Lee has lost more than a step and is now a bad contract on a very good team. Kerr wants a stretch four (Love would’ve been perfect) to pair with Bogut and Lee is an odd pairing. Lee can rebound but offers nothing on defense and is no longer a very good offensive weapon. Harrison Barnes needs to show the promise that he flashed during his rookie year and Bogut needs to stay healthy. The Warriors signed Shaun Livingston who will look to take some pressure off of Curry. Livingston has a great post up game for a point guard and is a better defender than Steph. Livingston can play the two which will also allow Klay to get some rest. Draymond Green was one of the stars of the postseason for his hustle and clutch shots but is he really that good? Green is a great glue guy but he’ll be overpaid role player once his contract ends. Think Landry Fields.

X-Factor: Andrew Bogut

Bogut (above) will have a big impact in Kerr's offense

            Bogut will probably never live up to the high expectations that were given to him when he was drafted number one by the Bucks. Bogut is a very good center who was completely ignored in Mark Jackson’s “offense” Look for Kerr to utilize Bogut more to open up Curry and Klay for more open threes. Bogut is a very good rim protector and is one of only a few two way centers. Bogut’s real trouble has been staying on the basketball court. How will Kerr keep Bogut on the court? Mareese Speights is a power forward who can shoot midrange jumpers and Festus Ezeili is an energy guy. No, I expect Kerr to use a lot of small lineups which means putting Bogut at the five and surrounding him with forwards and guards and maybe even using Lee as the center with four smaller players. Bogut’s health (along with Steph’s) is Golden State’s biggest concern. I trust Kerr enough to make this team elite when healthy.

Best case: Kerr is as good of a coach is Jackson is bad and the Warriors cruise, Curry and Thompson enjoy career years and Bogut stays healthy

Worst case: Kerr doesn’t have the impact that I think he will. Curry and Bogut get hurt

Bold Prediction: Warriors have best offense in league.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City came into 2013 with championship aspirations, only to be beaten by the San Antonio Spurs in 6 games. Sam Presti is one of the best GMs in the league even though trading James Harden was a colossal mistake; OKC still has the second best player on the planet in Kevin Durant and another top ten player in Russell Westbrook and an elite shot blocker in Serge Ibaka. Durant will miss time with a broken foot which might end up helping him in the long run: 82 games plus a long postseason is a lot for a guy who puts up the numbers that KD does. Durant averaged 32 points a game, shot over 50% from the field and 39% from the three-point line. Durant will miss approximately the first 6 weeks of the season. 

          It would be interesting to see what public perceptive would be if Durant and Lebron switched places in terms of when they started their career. Durant is in Lebron’s massive shadow but would people still think Lebron is better if Durant came first? Durant’s offense is downright historic and we might never see a player like him again. We won’t see a player like Lebron again so the debate is moot. I do think Durant will be better than Kobe, who has never come close to matching Durant’s efficiency. How much pressure is there for OKC to win a title? OKC nucleus is still very young and entering their prime: Durant is only 26 while Westbrook and Ibaka are both 25 but age is not the problem for OKC. Kevin Durant was not happy when Presti decided to trade his buddy James Harden and they’ve made it clear that they aren’t willing to spend because they are a “small market” team. Sure. Presti is playing a dangerous game, as Durant has two years left on his deal. If Durant leaves, OKC is doomed to rebuild again as Westbrook would almost surely demand a trade or walk the following year when his contract expires. While Durant claims that he was talking about returning home for a commercial, after what happened with Lebron,  fans deserve to get excited about a nucleus of John Wall, Bradley Beal and Durant.  

Sure Kevin you're talking about going home to shoot a commercial. Sure.

            Jalen Rose once predicated that Durant would follow Harden to Houston which, along with Howard, might be the scariest big three possible. Durant wouldn’t be going home (he’s from DC) but he did play college hoops at the University of Texas.

             

            After Durant and Westbrook, OKC gets less exciting. Serge Ibaka has developed into an all-star and will help take the load off of Westbrook. Steven Adams should take the starting role from Kendrick Perkins, as he look like he can be a very good center (the one good piece from the James Harden trade). Reggie Jackson (Presti might be facing another Harden situation to a lesser degree) was another great pick and will look to improve his decision making and jump shot. Jeremy Lamb has not been the player that OKC thought they were getting when they traded for Harden but is still a valuable shooter off the bench. If OKC believed in Lamb, they wouldn’t have signed Anthony Morrow. Morrow is an elite shooter whose true value will be seen when Durant returns to the Court. Journeyman Nick Collison provides a boost off the bench and Perry Jones will get a chance to show why he was once projected as a top-five pick.

Question: Why does everybody hate Westbrook?

OKC will struggle without one of their superstars but Russell Westbrook will pick up the slack. Westbrook is number three on my list of players who are irrationally hated and pick on by NBA pundits and fans alike, behind only Lebron James and Dwight Howard. Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league (sans a healthy Rose) and does things that only a handful of players can do. His shot selection can be a little rough but nobody in this league is perfect. Westbrook is constantly bashed for taking so many shots but I don’t remember people bashing him after he scored 40 and dished out 10 assists against the Spurs in game 4 of the Western Conference finals. Westbrook is part of the new breed athletic scoring point guards but is the antithesis of Derrick Rose in terms of public perception. The two players have very similar playing styles, carried by their athleticism. Everyone adores Rose and hates on Westbrook. I love Derrick Rose (I trade for him in every 2K) but if you asked me whom I’d rather have right now, I’d say Westbrook. Rose has been hurt for the last two years yet he still walks on water. Westbrook is not the same player as a healthy Rose but we need to see a healthy Rose before we deem him back.

X-Factor: Serge Ibaka

            Sergie Ibaka might be the most important player on OKC. OKC can survive a bad Durant or Westbrook game because if one struggles, the other is probably on. Ibaka is the key cog that makes everything work. Ibaka fills the role that Bosh did on the Miami Heat, with much better defense and without a three pointer. Ibaka is an elite mid range shooter and finishes well inside the paint. Ibaka’s elite mid range helps open the floor for Westbrook and Durant.

Ibaka's shot char

            Ibaka’s defense helps OKC in more ways than one. Other than affecting shots and scaring opponents from driving inside, Ibaka’s blocks usually lead into a fast break dunk for either Durant or Westbrook. Ibaka’s development has been so important in OKC taking the next step, as an injury to Ibaka would make Kendrick Perkins important which ends any hope for OKC.

Best Case: Durant is fresh and healthy, leads the league in everything once again, Westbrook shines without Durant, Ibaka brings his stellar defense and mid range and the role players gain confidence in Durant’s absence.

Worst Case: Westbrook struggles without Durant, Ibaka doesn’t have the same impact, role players struggle and OKC barely makes playoffs.

Bold Prediction: Westbrook averages 25 8 and 6 in Durant’s absence.